Wheel based on the assumption that aggressive policy is enacted. Source: MIT

“Our results show we still have around a 50-50 chance of stabilizing the climate” at a level of no more than a few tenths above the 2 degree target, said Ron Prinn, co-director of MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and a co-author of the new study. However, that will require global emissions, which are now growing, to start downward almost immediately.

That result could be achieved if the aggressive emissions targets in current U.S. climate bills were met, and matched by other wealthy countries, and if China and other large developing countries followed suit with only a decade or two delay. That 2 degree C increase is a level that is considered likely to prevent some of the most catastrophic potential effects of climate change, such as major increases in global sea level and disruption of agriculture and natural ecosystems.

The study used the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s. The new research involved hundreds of runs of the model with each run using slight variations in input parameters, selected so that each run has about an equal probability of being correct based on present observations and knowledge.

Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various outcomes, based on variations in the physical response of the climate system itself. But theMIT model is the only one that interactively includes detailed treatment of possible changes in human activities as well – such as the degree of economic growth, with its associated energy use, in different countries.

“The nature of the problem is one of minimizing risk,” explains Mort Webster, assistant professor of engineering systems, who was the lead author of the new report in an article published by MIT’s new office penned by David L. Chandler. “That’s why looking at the probabilities of various outcomes, rather than focusing on the average outcome in a given climate model, ‘is both more scientifically correct, and a more useful way to think about it’”, he says.

Regardless of how much one can follow the technical description of the analysis, the gist of it is that swift action is key. I think it’s great to see this important message being reinforced by such a reputable institution.

By the way, this post is part of Blog Action Day 2009 which takes place today and is dedicated to, you guessed it, climate change. Blog it on, folks!

Everytime I hear the expression ‘algae fuel’ get mentioned in the press, an alarm bell inside my head goes off. This time, quite literally. The latest exciting algae development comes from Los Alamos National Laboratory, a multidisciplinary research institution engaged in strategic science on behalf of national security.

The Lab’s award-winning laboratory sound-wave technology is helping Solix Biofuels, Inc. optimize production of algae-based fuel in a “cost-effective, scalable, and environmentally benign fashion – paving the way to lowering the carbon footprint of biofuel production”, said LANL in a press statement.

Algae innards contain a high concentration of lipids, or oils. These lipids can be extracted by a relatively simple chemical process and concentrated into “biocrude” – or “green gold” – an alternative to crude oil that can be refined into biodiesel, gasoline, or even jet fuel.

Now, a bit of context in order to better grasp how algae works: In order to turn algae into transportation fuel, the tiny plant-like organisms first must be separated from their watery home and the growth medium used to sustain them. Current methods rely on giant centrifuges to separate liquids from algae solids. Centrifuges take a lot of power to operate, raising production costs and increasing the process’ overall carbon use. Moreover, standard fuel-conversion methods extract lipids from the algae using solvents that are potentially hazardous to humans and the environment, and costly to dispose of.

This is where Los Alamos’s acoustic-focusing technology (Los Alamos Acoustic Flow Cytometer, a 2007 R&D100 Award-winning technology, which uses sound waves ) can make a difference. The algae-water-growth-medium mixture is subjected to ultrasonic fields that concentrate the algal cells into a dense sludge. This combined separation and concentration method uses hundreds of times less power than centrifuges. The Lab’s lipid extraction and fractionation technique also avoids the need for costly, hazardous solvents.

Under the cooperative research and development agreement (CRADA) between the Laboratory and Solix, Los Alamos bioscientist Greg Goddard and Solix’s cofounder and chief technology officer, Bryan Willson – an engineering professor at Colorado State University and founder of the university’s Engines and Energy Conversion Laboratory – will develop by year end a working extraction prototype using the licensed acoustic-focusing technology at Solix headquarters in Fort Collins, Colorado. The technology then will be deployed to Solix’s Coyote Gulch Demonstration Facility near Durango, Colorado, for real-world production of lower-cost biofuel.

We will keep you posted about the outcome of this exciting cooperation.

The Biomass Power Association (BPA), the leading association of biomass power companies in the United States, announced the launch of a $250,000 public relations, advocacy, and advertising campaign to demonstrate the vital role that biomass power can play in reducing greenhouse gases and creating new jobs across America, especially in rural communities. The campaign, which will focus on Washington, DC, will highlight the economic and environmental benefits of biomass power, as well as the importance of extending tax incentives essential to maintaining existing biomass power facilities and creating jobs.

“The goal of this campaign is to inform people of the long-term environmental and economic benefits of biomass power,” said Bob Cleaves, President and CEO of the Biomass Power Association. “We will emphasize that biomass power actually reduces greenhouse gases and presents the greatest opportunity to meet a strong standard for renewable electricity and create thousands of clean energy jobs.”

The campaign will include a series of biomass power education and promotional activities that will include an event with biomass industry and energy experts in Washington, DC to highlight the environmental and economic benefits of biomass power, facility tours, ad pieces in Washington, DC, and website overhaul.

The initiative is motivated by the fact that biomass power currently receives only half the production tax credit as other renewable technologies, yet these credits are set to expire at the end of this year. Because clean and renewable energy is more expensive to produce than fossil fuels, these federal production tax credits are critical to the renewable energy industry.

The Biomass Power Association is urging Congress to level the playing field in the renewable industry by providing tax equity, or parity, in the production tax credit. Besides, the Association wants Congress to extend these tax credits to existing biomass power facilities for an additional five years.

The Department of Energy estimates that biomass-powered plants currently provide almost 2% of the nation’s energy. The DOE projects that the potential for biomass could grow to 15% by 2020 – a goal that must be realized to reach federal and state renewable energy and greenhouse gas reduction goals.

“Many southeastern states lack sustainable access to wind or solar power,” said Cleaves. “This campaign will demonstrate how biomass power can produce enough renewable electricity to meet a strong federal mandate in all fifty states and create thousands of green jobs in the process. Biomass is the unknown renewable energy source that will lead the way to a clean energy future.”

Biomass power is a $1 billion industry with 80 facilities in 20 states and provides over 18,000 jobs nationwide. Power plants are predominately located in rural communities.

A California algae biofuel company today announced it has been awarded a “Notice of Allowance” (a written notification allowing registration) by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) for a patent application for its Suction Dredge System and Method.

Circle Biodiesel & Ethanol Corporation is hoping to solve the most important issue related to big-scale algae biofuel production, that is, feedstock recovery in a safe, economical and environmentally-friendly way. It says its dredge system can recover algae in massive volumes in a continuous fashion without the need for human swimmers to handle or clear the dredge. The patented dredge head has an automatic obstacle-clearing feature. When an obstacle blocks the intake, it is automatically and immediately cleared by the dredge head itself, and then immediately the dredge head goes back to dredging again. That means there is no need to shut down and clear the dredge head. The process is nonstop.

“We have solved the issue of feedstock recovery by developing a dredge system that can recover the algae in massive volumes. The cost savings are from the lower labor headcount and continuous dredging of higher volumes of algae than were previously possible before our invention. The increased safety for operating personnel who can now stay completely onboard is also a consideration,” says CEO Peter Schuh.

In order to cover other aspects of algae oil production, Circle has filed two separate utility patent applications at the USPTO: one for a cheap and fast removal of the algae oil in as fast a speed as the algae is recovered from the water environment and another which recovers biodiesel, ethanol and methane gas from the algae feedstock in a single, portable and scalable production facility. Besides the biofuels, drinking water is recovered as a co-product of the ethanol recovery.

“Our system can operate anywhere. It makes its own fuel to run its own equipment and it makes the drinking water for the needs of the operating and maintenance personnel at the production site. It is truly a revolution in biofuel production,” said Schuh.

How can you not be lured by a headline like this: “Nuclear power goes solar”? Or so says a piece of news posted on the Greenpeace website a few days ago. So what’s it all about?

Well, a former nuclear power station in Austria has been reopened as a solar power station. Yes, you read it right. According to the report, the Zwentendorf nuclear plant was never operated and has been mothballed since the 1970s. On Saturday it opened for clean energy business (to the tune of 1.2 million euros) as the largest solar power station in Austria.

Greenpeece was invited to hang a banner from the station. The organization chose to emblazon on the banner the following line: “Energy Revolution -Climate Solution.”

Still according to the report, a 1978 national referendum chose to keep the station inactive and nuclear fuel rods were never inserted into the reactor. Since then, the white elephant has stood dormant by the river Danube. Until last Saturday, that is.

Greenpeace says: “The only safe nuclear power comes from the sun”. Now, that’s an enlightened thing to say. Congratulation to Austria for setting such a great example on renewable energy.

A 1.2-kilowatt solar system for less than $5,000 by Renewable Power Solutions, a provider of solar energy installation services for Bay Area residential, commercial, non-profit and governmental buildings, was made available today after California state announced rebate incentives, tax credits and first-year energy savings.

The “Little Giant” solar system can power average household appliances like an energy-efficient refrigerator, a small air conditioner unit, a dishwasher or 64 compact florescent light bulbs. The company estimates that the investment returns $55,000 over 25 years.

California-based incentives are at step 5 of the Go Solar California initiative, and current rebates are at $1.55 per watt. The Energy Commission provides incentives for energy-efficient new home construction under the New Solar Homes Partnership and for existing homes under Go Solar California.

But it’s not only California that’s handing out incentives for households to adopt renewable power. Reuters reports that “China distributed 2 billion yuan ($293 million) in subsidies for power generated by renewable energy sources in the second half of 2008, a notice on the State Electricity Regulatory Commission website said.”

Still according to the report, the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world (the first being the United States) is devising “a plan to stimulate its renewable energy sector, including wind and solar power”.

The whole world is taking about the Climate Change Report released by the Obama administration via its U.S. Global Change Research Program. The gist of the report is that a reduction in carbon emissions is crucial to mitigate the impact that global warming will have on life as we know it. And it says that sooner is a lot better than later. In fact, we don’t any time to waste.

This is no novelty for the green contingent but hopefully the release of the report will be the last nail in the coffin of climate change deniers and procrastinators who insist in remaining oblivious to scientific facts, almost to a suicidal point. The Bush administration played a major role in cultivating a culture of denial and hadn’t even published a climate change report since 2000, when federal law requires a document every four years.

Renewable energy plays a major role in curbing global warming – a switch-over to clean sources of energy is fundamental and it is possible, even if at present there are several hurdles to be resolved, mainly in the way of transmission and a more efficient grid system. But act we must, not simply out of charity but mainly because we have created the situation we find ourselves in and it’s our duty to work on the solutions and contribute to their implementation.

PCBC is a yearly event in in San Francisco where exhibitors market their best and most innovative products to homebuilders looking for products that can, among other things, “help improve the sustainability of our communities”. It will take place between 17 and 19 June at the Moscone Center.

Part of the event is a competition called PCBC’s Cool Products competition which looks for outstanding products. Two of the categories to excel in are Conserves Natural Resources and Saves Energy. Each winner will have a special “Cool Products Winner” award displayed in their exhibit, and there will be kiosks displaying the winners with respective booth numbers to direct people to the appropriate exhibitors.

EcoStar was won the Conserves Natural Resources category, with its Majestic Slate 10″ Traditional Tiles, a narrower version of EcoStar’s existing 12-inch tiles. It is made from 80% recycled material with minimal use of limestone fillers.

The category Saves Energy category was won by Custom-Bilt Metals with its FusionSolar, a more-affordable rooftop solar power generation system integrated within a standing seam metal roof that provides both simplicity and low installation costs. It comes fully assembled, with the solar, thin-film laminate already integrated into the roof, which minimizes the installation costs and qualifies for tax incentives.

FusionSolar visually blends in without penetrations in the roof, delivers up to 7 LEED points in the on-site renewable energy category and also achieves a higher relative efficiency under high temperatures and low light than solar glass. Prospective customers receive a customized (ROI) report to help determine payback period and to understand how much total power consumption is offset by generating clean, renewable and dependable electric power.

So, if you happen to be in San Francisco between 17 and 19 June, check it out.

The big story this week is the piece of news that came out of of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The organization carried out the most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth’s climate will get in this century. It showed that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago — and could be even worse than that.

The study used the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s. The new research involved 400 runs of the model with each run using slight variations in input parameters, selected so that each run has about an equal probability of being correct based on present observations and knowledge. Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various outcomes, based on variations in the physical response of the climate system itself. But the MIT model is the only one that interactively includes detailed treatment of possible changes in human activities as well — such as the degree of economic growth, with its associated energy use, in different countries.

Study co-author Ronald Prinn, the co-director of the Joint Program and director of MIT’s Center for Global Change Science, says that, regarding global warming, it is important “to base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science,” he says. And in the peer-reviewed literature, the MIT model looks in great detail at the effects of economic activity coupled with the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems. “In that sense, our work is unique,” says Prinn.

The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees. This can be compared to a median projected increase in the 2003 study of just 2.4 degrees. The difference is caused by several factors rather than any single big change. Among these are improved economic modeling and newer economic data showing less chance of low emissions than had been projected in the earlier scenarios. Other changes include accounting for the past masking of underlying warming by the cooling induced by 20th century volcanoes, and for emissions of soot, which can add to the warming effect. In addition, measurements of deep ocean temperature rises, which enable estimates of how fast heat and carbon dioxide are removed from the atmosphere and transferred to the ocean depths, imply lower transfer rates than previously estimated.

Prinn said these and a variety of other changes based on new measurements and new analyses changed the odds on what could be expected in this century in the “no policy” scenarios — that is, where there are no policies in place that specifically induce reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, the changes “unfortunately largely summed up all in the same direction. Overall, they stacked up so they caused more projected global warming.”

While the outcomes in the “no policy” projections now look much worse than before, there is less change from previous work in the projected outcomes if strong policies are put in place now to drastically curb greenhouse gas emissions. Without action, “there is significantly more risk than we previously estimated,” Prinn says. “This increases the urgency for significant policy action.”

To illustrate the range of probabilities revealed by the 400 simulations, Prinn and the team produced a “roulette wheel” that reflects the latest relative odds of various levels of temperature rise. The wheel provides a very graphic representation of just how serious the potential climate impacts are.

“There’s no way the world can or should take these risks,” Prinn says. And the odds indicated by this modeling may actually understate the problem, because the model does not fully incorporate other positive feedbacks that can occur, for example, if increased temperatures caused a large-scale melting of permafrost in arctic regions and subsequent release of large quantities of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas. Including that feedback “is just going to make it worse,” Prinn says.

Prinn stresses that the computer models are built to match the known conditions, processes and past history of the relevant human and natural systems, and the researchers are therefore dependent on the accuracy of this current knowledge. Beyond this, “we do the research, and let the results fall where they may,” he says. Since there are so many uncertainties, especially with regard to what human beings will choose to do and how large the climate response will be, “we don’t pretend we can do it accurately. Instead, we do these 400 runs and look at the spread of the odds.”

Because vehicles last for years, and buildings and powerplants last for decades, it is essential to start making major changes through adoption of significant national and international policies as soon as possible, Prinn says. “The least-cost option to lower the risk is to start now and steadily transform the global energy system over the coming decades to low or zero greenhouse gas-emitting technologies.”

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